This post is inspired by an article by Tomas Pueyo, which I believe is compelling reading for understanding the growth of and the control of the COVID-19 outbreak:
(Update 01/04/20: Pueyo’s follow up article, from 20/3)
I have no idea who Pueyo is, I cannot vouch for his data, and commenters are free to argue against his analysis and his conclusions. I do not claim to know what Pueyo’s analysis might imply for how any particular city or country should be responding at any particular time.
I’m not sure where this post, or this blog, might go for the next while. Nothing is as important to society right now as managing COVID-19. Ironically, I’ll probably have plenty of time sitting at home in the next weeks or months, to write on the standard maths ed topics.
I plan to update this post from time to time, with links to articles and reports that, to my amateur eye, seem considered and important. In general the articles will be linked without comment; linking them means I believe they are worth reading, but I am not pretending to be an expert and I am open to counterclaim on anything. Commenters are also welcome to suggest articles; I may then update the post with a link up high. My general intention, however, is to have fewer articles, of high quality.
To be clear, this post is not particularly intended to be a forum for naive mathematical models, and I don’t intend to engage in that. I’ll also try to lay off the snarkiness, at least in the actual post. Commenters can comment as they wish. If, for example, some Liberal clown or some Greens clown says something stupid on social media, feel free to call it out. But the post itself is intended to promote clear-headed analyses. My other posts will continue to be as charmingly snarky as ever.
Link 1 Here is the link to the original article, by Thomas Pueyo, that inspired this post:
Link 2 Here is a World Health Organisation summary that commenter Steve R gave below:
WHO: Situation Reports (updated 25/03/20: link points to all reports)
Link 3 Here is an comprehensive map from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at John Hopkins University:
Below are a few more links (and link 2 above has been redirected). The top two come from David
Nagayam Nayagam a sciency friend of ours who sends article-links to an email list. David mostly links to technical-clinical articles. If you want to be added to David’s list, you can email David directly.
Link 4 Our World in Data
Link 5 Imperial College analysis of public health measures (widely reported upon)
Link 6 Snopes factchecking
Link 7 Norman Swan’s podcast
More links below, from David
Nagayam Nayagam. You can still email David directly, if you wish to be added to his email list. (Also, David’s twitter account contains more day to day information, plus howling at Australia’s idiocy.)
Link 8 University College London National Research Group’s tracking for each country
Link 9 National Center for Biotechnology Information hub for scientific literature on Covid-19
Link 10 A survey and discussion in Lancet on the public use of face masks.
We’ve added a link added to Pueyo’s follow-up article from (20/03)
More links courtesy of David Nayagam.
Link 11 David Nayagam now has a link for all the clinical articles he sends:
Link 12 The Institute for Health Metrics modelling of required resources:
Link 13 An impressive private compilation by “Alexey” of current data
Link 14 ScoMoFo finally releases the Australian government’s modelling: