BiFF: Norm Macdonald and Pie Charts

We already had plans to start a new series of posts: Because it’s Funny. This was to begin with a different comedian, but Norm McDonald‘s dying kind of forced our hand. The characterisation “his cynicism was just a byproduct of his idealism” makes him our kind of guy. Below is a clip from Saturday Night Live. Continue reading “BiFF: Norm Macdonald and Pie Charts”

The Coronavirus Vaccine and Australia’s Dangerous Clot

Most people will be aware that Australia’s rollout of coronavirus vaccines is being threatened by a dangerous clot. But it’s not just Greg Hunt. As well as the Health Minister there are a number of other problems, including a second, worrying clot.

Of course, ScoMoFo and his team of incompetent goons have screwed up Australia’s vaccination program, and of course they’re too busy image-managing and blame-shifting to work to fix it up. But there is also a serious question about the AstraZeneca vaccine and the prevalence of dangerous blood-clotting.

In brief, is the AstraZeneca vaccine sufficiently safe to warrant its use? How likely is the vaccine to protect a person, and protect them from what? What are the dangers of the vaccine, how likely are the dangers to eventuate, and how dangerous are the dangers?

We’re open-minded on the question, we haven’t looked hard for trustworthy answers, and we’d appreciate it if anyone can point us to reasonable and reliable evidence. We’ll happily work to digest any good-faith analyses, and will look to write about it in future posts. It would not surprise us if we ended up being convinced that the AstraZeneca vaccine, although not without significant risks, is worth the risks. But, as it stands, we’re not convinced.

One thing that does absolutely nothing to convince us that the AstraZeneca vaccine is sufficiently safe is pronouncements from ScoMoFo and GregHunt that the vaccine is sufficiently safe. Declarations from these self-interested con men, on anything, are worthless. We are also not at all comforted by government apparatchik’s chanting “no proven link”, as if some formal proof of a link rather than statistical evidence is the critical issue right now. All these people may be telling the truth, but they are so heavily invested in manipulation and crowd management that it is impossible to tell.

We look forward to reading, and writing upon, whatever non-crazy material is thrown our way.

 

 

 

Critical Issues: Spot the Error

This one could be a WitCH or a PoSWW, except we’re withholding some information. So, consider it an analysis puzzle.

The following was posted to an Australia-NZ statistics list. The email was from an American statistician, referring to and quoting from this article (Update: link fixed), on a Texas hospital adopting critical care guidelines. See if you can identify the problem.

UPDATE (30/7)

A weird hint: we are not playing fair. (And, boy are people gonna be pissed.)

As we wrote in reply to a comment “There is the post, and the links to which the post refers. You can consider what ever issues you see.” So maybe list quickly, without elaboration, anything you see as an issue.

UPDATE (31/7)

OK, time to end this, and so a final hint. As indicated in the comments, the “problem” is with the poster’s line “Statistics is a bitch”. We’re very, very pleased that no one has hit upon the “problem” with this line.

FINAL UPDATE (01/08)

Well, wasn’t that fun? Thanks to everyone for playing along.

As indicated above, the “problem” is with the line “Statistics is a bitch”. And what’s wrong with that line? Not a whole lot. It’s not a great line, since it can be read as treating the “statistics” as a from-nowhere reality, rather than the disastrous consequences of Republican screw-up. But no big deal.

So, why post on this as a problem? Because the stats email list to which the comment was posted thought it was a problem. A number of commenters took very serious issue with the poster’s use of the word “bitch”.

This began with an off-post email to the poster, indicating “the language used is not at all appropriate for [such] an email list” and a request: “I’d appreciate it if you could apologise for this choice of words.” (To whom?) The poster replied to the email list, with a long and unhelpful, but fundamentally reasonable, non-apology apology. In brief, the poster, who is in Texas, suggested that they had much, much bigger things to worry about. And then the bashing kicked in.

There were calls for the poster to “grow up”, to “stop using hurtful, offensive language”, suggestions that “the problem is the use of a term that is all too often directed at women in a derogatory way” (ignoring that this was not the case here), whining about “gendered name-calling”, and all manner of nitpicky and gratuitous complaint.

It was crazy and it was revolting, and all of it coming from proud and proper academics. Eventually there was some tepid defence of the poster, but way too little and way too late. No one stood up properly to these ridiculous, self-important language nazis.

Which is why we posted about it here. Of course this is the type of blog where those offended by strong language are unlikely to hang around. And, maybe some shyer types here agree with the poster’s critics. But, it was still very, very pleasing that no one who engaged here had a clue what we could have been on about.

WitCH 20: Tattletail

This one is like complaining about the deck chairs on the Titanic, but what the Hell. The WitCH is courtesy of John the Merciless. It is from the 2018 Specialist Mathematics Exam 2:

The Examiners’ Report notes the intended answer:

H0: μ = 150,   H1: μ < 150

The Report indicates that 70% of students gave the intended answer, and the Report comments on students’ answers:

The question was answered well. Common errors included: poor notation such as  H0 = 150 or similar, and not understanding the nature of a one-tailed test, evidenced by answers such as H1: μ ≠ 150.

Have fun.

AMSI’s Brain Teaser

Last week, AMSI released yet another paper on the issue of school mathematics being taught by “out of discipline” teachers. It will come as no surprise to readers of this blog that we have many issues with AMSI’s paper. Here, we’ll focus on just one aspect.

The Sydney Morning Herald’s report on AMSI’s paper begins:

Fewer than one in four Australian high school students have a qualified maths teacher …

That statement is, of course, utter nonsense. By any reasonable definition, a much higher percentage of secondary students are taught by formally “qualified” teachers. It is concerning that an “education reporter” would lead with such an implausible claim, but SMH was not alone. The news.com.au report was titled:

Only 1 in 4 high-schoolers are being taught maths by qualified teachers

The Australian’s barely comprehensible sentence, courtesy of another education reporter, appeared to suggest that matters are even worse:

Fewer than one in four students are taught by a qualified maths teacher — one with at least a university minor in the subject — at some stage between Years 7 to 10.

So, what is the source of all these inflated declarations of educational doom? It would appear to be on page 2 of AMSI’s paper. In the first of the paper’s eye-catching Key Points, the authors write:

The extent of the problem [with the supply of qualified teachers] is illustrated by the estimated amount of out‐of‐field teaching occurring with less than one in four students having a qualified mathematics teacher in each of Years 7 to 10.

That reminds us: we must buy AMSI a box of commas for Christmas.

The above sentence, which turned out to be the grabber of AMSI’s paper, is like an optical illusion: you think you’ve got the meaning, and then it slips around to mean something entirely different. It is no wonder if reporters misinterpreted.

What did the AMSI authors intend to convey, and on what basis? It is difficult to tell. A linked endnote in AMSI’s paper refers to a 2017 AMSI publication. The page reference to this second document is clearly incorrect, but it appears that the intention is to refer to page 4, which has its own list of key points, including:

At least 26% of Years 7–10 maths teachers are not fully qualified.

This is an admirably clear statement and, if true, one may (or may not) regard it as a relatively major problem. The statement, however, is not remotely supportive of the educational catastrophe that AMSI’s garbled 2019 statement led gullible reporters to declare.

Also puzzling, it is not clear how AMSI’s 2017 statement, or any other AMSI declaration that we could find, leads reasonably to any natural interpretation of AMSI’s 2019 statement. This is the case even if one ignores that “not fully qualified” does not clearly equate to “not qualified”, and that 26% of teachers does not equate to 26% of classes, nor to 26% of students. Even with the most liberal assumptions and generous interpretations, we still cannot determine the basis, any basis, for the 2019 statement. The reader is invited to give it a go.

There are plenty more serious issues with AMSI’s paper which, though raising some very important issues and suggestions, also connects some distant and very disputable dots. It probably doesn’t matter, however. We worked hard to read AMSI’s clumsily written paper. It seems unlikely that many others will do likewise.

Chicken Shit

The ACCC has released guidance on the meaning of “free range eggs”, to come into force in April. There are a number of conditions for hens to be designated free range, but the clear mathematical requirement is that the chickens be subject to “a stocking density of 10,000 hens or less [sic] per hectare.” This compares to the maximum of 1500 hens per hectare recommended by the CSIRO. And by Choice. And by the Humane Society International. And by the RSPCA. And by pretty much everyone except Coles and other industry thugs.

The ACCC is just the messenger here, their guidance mirroring the Australian Consumer Law (Free Range Egg Labelling) Information Standard 2017, passed last April. The legislation was introduced by the Minister for Small Business, Michael McCormack. It was McCormack who took credit for the definition of stocking density:

 … my decision takes into consideration the views of consumers, advocacy groups and industry, and provides a sensible balance with a focus on informing consumers – so they can make the choice that’s right for their needs.

The reader can assess whether McCormack’s “consideration” has resulted in anything remotely resembling “sensible balance”, or in the ability of consumers to make an informed choice. Or, rather, whether Minister McCormack is simply another National Party asshole.

Smoke Gets in Your IQs

There’s not much more revolting than the tobacco industry. Well, OK, there’s racist scum like Trump and Turnbull. And there’s greasy media apologists. And Bill Gates. And Mia Farrow.*

Alright, the world is full of awful people. But you get the point: it is difficult to be on the side of smoking and tobacco-pushing sociopaths.

Difficult, but not impossible.

Recently, the media was full of shock and horror at a new study on smoking. It was widely reported that 2/3 of people who try one cigarette end up as “daily smokers”. This was the conclusion of a meta-analysis, covering over 200,000 respondents from eight surveys. Professor Peter Hajek, one of the study’s authors, noted the meta-analysis constituted documentation of the “remarkable hold that cigarettes can establish after a single experience.”

Which is crap, and obvious crap. The implied suggestion that a single cigarette can turn a person into a helpless addict is nothing but Reefer Madness madness.

How can a respected and sophisticated academic study come to such a conclusion? Well, it doesn’t.

Anyone who has read the great debunking by Susan Traynor‘s son knows to never take a statistical study, much less a one sentence summary of a study, at face value. In this case, and as the authors of the study properly and cautiously note, that “2/3 of people” hides a wide variance in survey quality, response rates and response types.

More fundamentally, and astonishingly, the study (paywalled) never attempts to clarify, much less define, the term “daily smoker”. How many days does that require? The appendix to the study suggests that only three of the eight surveys included in the meta-analysis asked about “daily” smoking with specific reference to a minimal time period, the periods being 30 days, “nearly every day” for two months, and six months.

Of these three studies, the 2013 US NSDUH survey, which used the 30-day period, had around 55,000 respondents and the highest response rate, of around 72%. Amongst those respondents, about 50% of those who had ever smoked had at some time been “daily smokers” (i.e. for 30 days). Hardly insignificant, nor an insignificant time period, but a significant step down from “2/3 daily smokers”. (For some reason, the figures quoted in the meta-analysis, though close, are not identical to the figures in the NSDUH survey; specifically the number of people answering “YES” to the questions “CIGEVER” and “CIGDLYMO” differ.)

Even accepting the meta-analysis as sufficiently accurate, so what? What does it actually indicate? Reasonably enough, the authors suggest that their study has implications for efforts to stop people becoming regular smokers. The authors are tentative, however, rightly leaving the policy analysis for another forum. In particular, in the study the authors never make any claim of the “remarkable hold” that a single cigarette can have, nor do they make any remotely similar claim.

The “remarkable hold” line, which was repeated verbatim in almost every news report, originates from a media release from Hajek’s university. Of course barely any media organisations bothered to look beyond the media release, or to think for half a second before copying and pasting.

There is indeed a remarkable hold here. It is the remarkable hold university media units have on news organisations, which don’t have the time or experience or basic nous to be properly skeptical of the over-egged omelettes routinely handed to them on a platter.

Update: Just a quick addition, for those might doubt that Turnbull is racist scum.

* Yeah, yeah, no one knows, except Mia and Woody. But I believe Moses.